First, here are performance tables for my various ETF timer models.
Canadian 2X ETF Timer Models
US 2X ETF Timer Models
As for my personal performance, the Covestor chart below illustrates that my Canadian holdings beat the TSX by 40% over the past twelve months.
The past twelve months have provided near perfect conditions for my type of market timing models – a sharp decline followed by a sharp rebound. The million dollar question is “Where to from here?”. For leveraged ETF’s to provide superior returns, the underlying market has to make a consistent move in a favourable direction. I am concerned that the bull leveraged ETF’s that my models are based on, specifically HXU and QLD, may have peaked and be due for a pullback. In order to address my concerns, I may 1. tighten my stops or 2. sell all or a portion of my HXU and QLD holdings.
For those of you who have followed my models and purchased either HXU or QLD, you may want to consider taking appropriate actions to not allow your gains to slip away. Of course, the market could march higher but seasonal patterns aren’t favourable. Stock markets usually peak for the year in early May or mid-July. A mid-July peak is most often associated with a bull market which I don’t think we are in.
FJP
