Kelly Crowe of the CBC’s “The National” had an interesting segment on economic forecasting last night. The video can be found here. Economists Dr. Sherry Cooper (Chief Economist, BMO Capital Markets) and Don Drummond (Chief Economist, TD Bank Financial Group) were interviewed and both freely admitted that they did not foresee the credit crunch and recession. Both economists admitted that people forget your incorrect forecasts but if you make a wild forescast and are correct then you become a rock star economist. Cooper said that economic forecasting is an art not a science even though there is no shortage of economists who are trying to make it a science. When speaking about the stock market, Cooper said that she knows that she doesn’t know where the markets are going but at least she knows that she doesn’t know. She said that there are lots of young economists who do not yet know that they don’t know.
I like people who know that they don’t know. I’ll paraphrase Plato or Socrates (I’m not sure which philosopher made the observation) “Recognition of ignorance is the first step towards acquisition of knowledge.”.
FJP
