The S&P/TSX composite index is down 41.7% and the Nasdaq is down 35.6% since the ETF2X timers advised us to get out of the stock market in mid-June. There has been no change in the ETF2X timers so you should consider staying in cash and/or short or intermediate term bond ETF’s. I am working on a methodology of stepping back into the long double exposure ETF’s in increments (perhaps 15% at a time) when my timer gets close to generating a long signal. My thinking on this point is that I should be able to capture more of the market’s initial upward move by going long a little before my timer generates a signal. Of course, there is the danger that by getting back in the market too early, a long signal may not be generated and I’ll have to sell my double long ETF’s at a loss. For that reason, I will set up 15% trailing stops on QLD or HXU as I buy them.
My US holdings are now 85% IEF and 15% QLD. My Canadian timer isn’t close to generating a long signal so I haven’t bought any HXU. I am concerned that IEF has run up in price too fast and have therefore entered a tight stop on my holdings.
You can view updated performance tables and equity curves for the Canadian and US ETF2X models here and here.
As you can see in the following performance charts from Covestor, by investing as per my preferred ETF2X models over the past three months I have successfully beat the markets by a wide margin.
Canadian Account
US Account
Below are the return tables for the double exposure ETF models that I have developed.
Canadian Models
US Models
As for my performance relative to other individual investors at Covestor, both my Canadian (fjpenney) and US (fpenney) accounts are in the Top 50 based on absolute performance over the past three months.
FJP
