ETF2X Timers - So Far, So Good

The pummelling suffered by the Canadian and US stock markets lately has helped the ETF2X market timers shine beyond belief. The average year-to-date return for the three Canadian models is ahead of the S&P/TSX 60 by 54.0% (25.8% vs -28.2%).  The average year-to-date return of the six US models is ahead of the Nasdaq by an incredible 72.6% (34.6% vs -38.0%).  If the ETF2X models maintain that performance in the future, I’ll be one hell of a happy camper!

Let’s be honest.  The models have done well in part due to the once-in-a-lifetime meltdown of the markets.  There are many wise investors who refuse to believe that it is possible to develop a successful market timing strategy over a long term due to the degree of randomness in the markets.  After all, a number of peer-reviewed articles have been presented in prestigious publications such as the Journal of Investing which detail how unlikely it is for market timing to be successful over the long term. Trouble is, none of the articles, to the best of my knowledge, have focused on the type of models discussed here at ETF2X.  That is, none of the studies have examined models based on timers that are correct on the long side more than 60% of the time and employ double exposure ETF’s.  There is a good reason for that, however.  Double exposure ETF’s are so new that long term studies are impossible.  In the meantime, subscribers to ETF2X can decide for themselves if they want to put a portion of their investments behind one or more of the models presented on this site.