As seen in the table below, my preferred models which are highlighted in blue continue to outperform their respective markets year-to-date by a wide margin. Not only do the models outperform as measured by percentage gain, they also have lower ulcer indexes and lower maximum drawdowns than a buy-and-hold-the-market strategy. As I have stated before, past performance doesn’t guarantee future performance!
As a Canadian, most of my investments following the HXU/XSB model. Despite the incredible 7.5% rally in the Canadian market today, the S&P/TSX 60 would have to tack on another 12.6% just to get to where it was on June 12 when my model signalled that it was time to go to a money market ETF (CMR) or a short term bond fund (XSB). These models won’t make correct calls all the time (such a model doesn’t exist) but I am hopeful that following the ones highlighted in blue will keep me ahead of a buy-and-hold strategy. A nice facet of these models is the very low maintenance inherent in them. I never have to research a stock, emotions are held in check, and very little time is required each week. Of course, the proof is in the pudding and there isn’t much pudding yet (i.e. the time period for which the models have been tested is short).
